The “Global Solar Forecast 2050” report by consultancy Rethink Energy shows that solar is growing so fast that it is bound to have growing pains, with a projection that estimates a five-fold increase in annual installations by 2038.
According to the report, governments, utilities and renewable energy companies have realized that not only is it already the cheapest way to generate electricity, and will become even cheaper, but the emergence of battery energy storage makes it a more predictable resource.
Furthermore, a massive expansion of this type of energy is expected as pressure from governments to make policy changes sees consumers rewarded for self-supply, softened by battery energy storage, and indicates that rooftop solar, at its peak, will account for 59% of annual capacity additions by 2050.
The report introduces the concept of “Per Capita Rooftop Capacity” and predicts that countries such as Poland, Italy, China, the U.S. and Vietnam, and even the Netherlands, will begin to chase the leader Australia in GW of rooftop solar installed per million inhabitants.
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Other applications
Solar power will also be at the heart of the green hydrogen sector, which will gain momentum through 2030 and absorb a staggering amount of cheap electricity in the electrolysis process, mostly from cheap solar mega-projects in Australia, North Africa, the Middle East, China and North America, including hotspots such as Chile.
The scale of annual additions growth will be staggering, increasing its compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 14.35% each year through 2030, before falling back to 9.7% CAGR through 2040.
But the associated growing pains will be considerable, with problems finding and financing enough polysilicon, and even more problems wresting industry dominance from China.
All of this will happen over the next 30 years, but new superpowers in solar irradiation will also burst onto the scene, and places like Chile and Australia will build giant energy export businesses based on both solar and wind power.
Annual global solar additions will reach 617 GW in 2030, and peak at 1022 GW in 2040, before returning to a replacement business in the run-up to 2050.
To access the full Rethink Energy report, click here
